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Veterans of the NFL are very fond of repeating a c

first_imgVeterans of the NFL are very fond of repeating a coaching axiom that has been around the game of football since olden days: The Big Eye in the Sky don’t lie.A player’s body of work, his reputation and prowess are there for all to see. Player’s that are preparing to play their opponent determine if their adversary is good, athletic, strong, tough, smart, honorable, courageous, ferocious, or not, as they scour video through the prism of a sideline and end zone camera lens. Teams and players spend hours and hours dissecting plays, formations, personnel groups, tendencies and, most importantly, player ability. By the time games are played, every player knows his opponent’s strengths and weaknesses and what they are capable of. This fact combines with another truth inherently understood by every football player: nobody wants to be embarrassed on the field. And how does one get embarrassed on the field? He gets beat; he doesn’t do his job. The pinnacle of getting beat and not doing your job and the most embarrassing way to get beat and not do your job is to get run over by your opponent. After all, the very foundation of the game is to knock your opponent to the ground and do it with malice.And this is my advice to the Cardinals third-round pick from Northern Iowa, running back, David Johnson. Use video as a weapon. Former Cardinals kicker Phil Dawson retires Let teams that are going to play you see what you’re capable of by lowering the boom from time-to-time on tacklers because it will help you when you play; it’s the gift that keeps on giving the whole year. Although Johnson is more of a slasher than a pounder and has many of the same skills Andre Ellington has, he’s 6-1 and 225-pounds. Where Ellington doesn’t possess The Boom, Johnson does and the The Boom must be fed, isn’t that right Beastmode?Marshawn Lynch and other big backs like him choose the third-rail of rushing just to keep their opponents honest and to exact physical damage on all those that oppose them. The third-rail of rushing is an attack on another man’s person: one rail to the left, one rail to the right, and one rail straight over the defender; thus, the third rail. If Johnson will choose the third-rail and show The Boom on video, his slasher mentality and ability to make defenders miss in the open field will improve dramatically. Players don’t want to be embarrassed so they will dig-in when trying to tackle him in the open field, their feet in cement. This will make it easier to make tacklers miss, isn’t that right Le’Veon Bell? And all Johnson needs to do in order to achieve this goodness is to show it on video every now and then. Remind defenders what he’s capable of. Use video as a weapon, David Johnson. Grace expects Greinke trade to have emotional impact Your browser does not support the audio element. When you play the game of football, video is a weapon. What you do during plays and how you play will impact your opponent for weeks to come. One big hit from a safety will serve notice to others of their impending doom; one savage club and arm under pass rush by an edge player can give tackles nightmares; one brutal bashing of a would-be tackler will stand as a warning bell for all when the Sunday silks are on. And the tone of that bell has a crystal clear tintinnabulation: Intimidation.center_img Derrick Hall satisfied with D-backs’ buying and selling The 5: Takeaways from the Coyotes’ introduction of Alex Meruelo Top Stories Comments   Share   LISTEN: David Johnson, Cardinals running back last_img read more

We are due a recession in 2020 – and we will lack the

first_img Facebook Twitter Facebook 13 Sep 2018 22:42 Share on Twitter Twitter Share on Twitter Share Share on Twitter Share on Twitter Share Report The US economy is overheating as the Dow Jones rises ever higher on Wall Street.Photograph: Richard Drew/AP * You can only imagine how well populist parties will fare in the aftermath of a downturn that came before the preceding one had even subsided. Lehman collapse: what has happened to the markets since? 1 2 Report Typical years and years without crisis then Brexit and another financial crisis come at the same time.Is Southern Rail in charge of our destiny? Share on Facebook Reply Worse recession then Share on Facebook Maclon Sorry there was an error. Please try again later. If the problem persists, please contact Userhelp Share on Twitter 3 4 Twitter Share on Facebook Report If it allows us to get rid of trumpism and keep climate deniers and cretins away from power once and for all without a war, that’s the price to pay I presume? 4 5 US economy 25 Get a shotgun certificate whilst you can! coolhandluke100 Reply Facebook What do you mean by ‘I’m wearing a suit!’? Has your tailor’s father made your father’s suits? Otherwise, how shall we know that we can trust you? 0 1 We are due a recession in 2020 – and we will lack the tools to fight it Twitter Share on Messenger Minda Thompson Or lottery tickets! 13 Sep 2018 22:53 Why hold off buying the home… it will have value which the money you hold onto wont Please select Personal abuse Off topic Legal issue Trolling Hate speech Offensive/Threatening language Copyright Spam Other Share on Facebook Robert Skidelsky Share on Facebook Thu 13 Sep 2018 10.10 EDT Share on Facebook emiliofloris Threads collapsed Share 13 Sep 2018 23:10 Reply Balaams_Ass Facebook 3 Share on LinkedIn | Pick Maclon Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share 5 6 Twitter Facebook Facebook Reply Share on Facebook Share on Facebook Report newest Show 4 more replies Share 13 Sep 2018 23:13 Ten years on from the financial crash, we need to get ready for another one | Pick Share on Twitter Share on Twitter Twitter Share on Twitter Twitter Report Report | Pick Facebook 3 4 2 3 Share on Twitter Twitter Conditions will soon be ripe for a financial crisis, but governments will have their hands tied recommendations Facebook Share on Twitter Predicting the right year of the recession would be an achievement. Most predictions whether government or otherwise seem to struggle accurately predicting 3 months to a year ahead. Twitter Share on Twitter Well, that was cheery. Twitter Report Read more Share on Facebook Share on Facebook Twitter emiliofloris 13 Sep 2018 22:40 Balaams_Ass Martin Brambley Report | Pick | Pick Report Think of the Jams…they are next to fall off a cliff…think a lot of people are putting stuff on credit/cards…and thinking f££k it…they are never gonna pay it back…oh and this recession is here and now…its just gonna get bigger You did an A level “many moons ago” so I guess you must know better than some professor and a CEO/research associate in the field? | Pick Glen Pierce Maclon Buy Bitcoin! Twitter 3 4 Share on Twitter Its still a house. You could keep your cash in its wheelbarrow in its garden 13 Sep 2018 23:11 | Pick 13 Sep 2018 22:10 18 19 Glen Pierce Reply Twitter Reply Continentalcyclist 2 3 Share on Facebook | Pick Facebook Share on Twitter Mustelidae 0 1 JohnHenryNewman comments (180)Sign in or create your Guardian account to join the discussion. Share Facebook Reply Financial crisis 25 26 Rosnona Share on Facebook Read more Facebook Joe Dert Share 13 Sep 2018 23:26 Yes, if your only grab onto the headline numbers, that’s what it looks like. If you make an effort and try to understand what he’s talking about, it’s a good framework for understanding what to watch out for in the news headlines as things start to go down the pan. Minda Thompson Share Share on Facebook | Pick Share Joe Dert | Pick Share on Twitter plakias Facebook 13 Sep 2018 23:50 How does Brexit cause a global recession. Did you actually read the article they are predicting a recession regardless of Brexit. 51 52 Share on Facebook Facebook Facebook Share 14 Sep 2018 12:35 | Pick 30 31 Reply Share unthreaded expanded Share on Twitter Sign in or create your Guardian account to recommend a comment | Pick Share Share on Facebook 14 Sep 2018 0:54 Share oldest 100 Report 13 Sep 2018 22:47 Share on Twitter 14 Sep 2018 2:06 Share on Twitter Continentalcyclist Reply Minda Thompson Share on Facebook 19 20 15 16 emiliofloris | Pick Report Facebook stevensj Share on Twitter | Pick Share Reply Report Facebook Twitter | Pick Twitter 4 LJackson1999 | Pick Twitter | Pick Not if the Property markets sinks. Reply Reply Share on Twitter | Pick Share on Twitter 13 Sep 2018 23:10 7 8 Share on Facebook Report Share on Facebook Reply Nonsense. This time it’s different, there will be no recession and the boom will continue indefinitely. Give me all your money and I’ll invest it for you, for a very reasonable fee. You can trust me, I’m wearing a suit! Share MattBucks Facebook Reply Share | Pick Facebook Twitter | Pick Reply Show 25 Reply 13 Sep 2018 23:57 11 12 If you think this is only being flagged in The Guardian then you need to get out more. | Pick 13 Sep 2018 22:48 | Pick Financial crisis Facebook Facebook Share on Twitter Report 5 6 1 2 RawBiffCanine Twitter 14 Sep 2018 15:36 0 1 Reply Share on Facebook Reason (optional) Report Share Twitter | Pick Twitter I’m assuming that economics is taking advice from its more scientific and better-at-predicting-things co-conspirator…Astrology. Just because Saturn will conjunct Pluto at 22° Capricorn that doesn’t mean a recession. 13 Sep 2018 23:10 Report Reply Share on Facebook Report … we have a small favour to ask. The Guardian will engage with the most critical issues of our time – from the escalating climate catastrophe to widespread inequality to the influence of big tech on our lives. At a time when factual information is a necessity, we believe that each of us, around the world, deserves access to accurate reporting with integrity at its heart.More people are reading and supporting The Guardian’s independent, investigative journalism than ever before. And unlike many news organisations, we have chosen an approach that allows us to keep our journalism accessible to all, regardless of where they live or what they can afford. But we need your ongoing support to keep working as we do.Our editorial independence means we set our own agenda and voice our own opinions. Guardian journalism is free from commercial and political bias and not influenced by billionaire owners or shareholders. This means we can give a voice to those less heard, explore where others turn away, and rigorously challenge those in power.We need your support to keep delivering quality journalism, to maintain our openness and to protect our precious independence. Every reader contribution, big or small, is so valuable. Support The Guardian from as little as $1 – and it only takes a minute. Thank you. Report Twitter Reply Share on Twitter Facebook Facebook You can’t predict the exact time of a recession. A spark like the housing market collapse in the US is needed. But you can identify risks, their severity and the probability they will negatively impact the economy. MBA’s and economists are quite good at that. Report | Pick Thejobhunter Reply Share on Facebook No. But Messrs. Roubini and Co. have a fairly good track record of gloom and doom. And they are not prophesying a recession, but a recession without the tools to fight it. That is different stuff. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter 1 Share on Facebook Shares595595 Stephen Da Costa What became of the G20 leaders who met in 2008 to avert financial crisis? Twitter Joe Dert Share Report Share on Facebook 13 Sep 2018 22:50 Martin Brambley Share on Facebook 13 Sep 2018 22:47 5 6 MMSD81 Stephen Da Costa 14 Sep 2018 1:04 Comments 180 Share on Twitter Facebook Indeed. Share on Facebook Financial sector 3 4 Share Smuggo Reply Chris Fynn Joe Dert 6 7 Report Share on Facebook 13 Sep 2018 23:53 Report Twitter Share on WhatsApp Share Facebook 1 2 Share toadyblegh Share on Twitter Share on Twitter It’s worth remembering that Roubini predicted “the mother of all asset bubbles” would burst in 2016, a “perfect storm” for the global economy in 2013, and a recession in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007, none of which came to pass. He may well be right about 2020 but, as has often been said of him, a stopped clock is right twice a day and his entire reputation is based on the fact that he was right in 2008 and wrong in every year that preceded and succeeded it. Twitter Reply 6 7 13 Sep 2018 23:27 Share Reply Peter Krall 13 Sep 2018 22:47 Close report comment form toadyblegh Joe Dert 22 23 Reply Report Reply All Share on Twitter Facebook Gingerrrr I think they actually call Roubini Professor Doom given he was one of the few to predict the financial crisis. Twitter One can only imagine the impact of a recession on top of Brexit, Trump, austerity, identity politics and the rise of the far right. Especially given the thinning of the Thin Blue Line. I remember the riots of 2015, and the sense of loss of order in our cities. Share | Pick Share Share Report Share Share on Facebook Facebook Share on Facebook Reply | Pick Report ‘……because of their status as the global reserve currency, which could alleviate any shocks.’ Is that not a major part of the problem, which many countries around the world are uniting to address! Early days, but long term very much at the expense of the US$/economy! Report Report 8 9 toadyblegh Share on Facebook Share Share on Facebook Facebook | Pick Report Joe Dert | Pick Show 5 more replies Share on Twitter Kevin Sullivan 8 9 And in Europe, the rise of populist parties * is making it harder to pursue EU-level reforms and create the institutions necessary to combat the next financial crisis and downturn. Unlike in 2008, when governments had the policy tools needed to prevent a free fall, the policymakers who must confront the next downturn will have their hands tied while overall debt levels are higher than during the previous crisis. When it comes, the next crisis and recession could be even more severe and prolonged than the last. Reply Twitter Share Report Share on Facebook 4 5 plakias Share 6 7 gooner4thewin Aguazul 0 1 Share Report I’m not sure recessions have a due date. 14 Sep 2018 0:04 Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Reply Twitter Report Report Facebook Report Facebook Rosnona Share To be fair I had not mentioned “Black Swan” , I haven’t got in front of me so can’t quote the page number but the 2007 edition suggested that a crash was imminent due to complacency on risk. With Trump at the helm? Scary. Pratandwhitney Facebook Reply Report 9 10 Facebook TheThirstMutilator It is probably worth considering that China will likely be far more severely hurt by the US trade war than the US will be ( although of course, it will hurt both to a certain extent) because of China’s huge trade surplus.This factor, as well as China’s substantial combined public and private debt makes it likely the next crisis could be predominantly triggered there, as opposed to the US.The US also has an unrivalled potential to QE ( as pointed out by Alan Greenspan) because of their status as the global reserve currency, which could alleviate any shocks. Facebook Facebook Report Share 14 Sep 2018 12:16 | Pick coolhandluke100 Reply Report 13 Sep 2018 23:14 14 Sep 2018 0:00 Report Share on Facebook Twitter Share | Pick Share on Twitter Banking Twitter | Pick 13 Sep 2018 23:00 | Pick Share on Twitter Australia is in exactly the same situation as the UK due to neo-classical tomfoolery once again, but on a massive scale now. Messing with sales of public assets and cutting taxes and issuing debt like there were money trees out there somewhere. From down here it looks to me like the UK may be well to be out of it. Harder to go live in Spain I suppose but if you’ve money that was never an issue anyway. There are always consequences but in my experience walking away was usually a decision remembered with relief rather than regret. At least the young learned the importance of voting even if it means venturing into a storm. We are due a recession in 2020O 13 14 https://mauihawaiitheworld.wordpress.com/2016/11/20/future-predictions-when-saturn-conjuncts-pluto-in-2020/ January 12, 2020, Saturn will conjunct Pluto at 22° Capricorn. Many astrologers are noting that a Saturn/Pluto conjunction in Capricorn can be transformative in the extreme, even potentially very destructive. Astrologer Maurice Fernandez (published in the Dec 2015 edition of The Mountain Astrologer) – “The Saturn–Pluto cycle occurs roughly every 33 to 38 years, varying according to Pluto’s highly elliptical orbit. This meeting of forces represents, among other things, the redistribution of power in the world or, in other words, which faction will make the decisions that affect the greater collective, whether this occurs in plain sight or behind the scenes. “From a spiritual perspective, this cycle reflects a rite of passage determining who is most qualified to be the custodian of resources, and thus regulates who will be in a position of influence. In its purest form, this cycle is one of the highest tests of integrity and morality for those in authority, along with a test of capacity and resilience. Beyond the management of power, this cycle is also about the skill to increase power and the value of resources. “Looking back at previous cycles, we can see that a Saturn–Pluto conjunction occurred in October 1914, around the outbreak of World War I; this global conflict certainly reshuffled power dynamics by dissolving the Russian monarchy, the Ottoman Empire, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which led to the redrawing of national borders within Europe. Facebook LJackson1999 Twitter Share on Twitter Facebook Share on Facebook Twitter Joe Dert Share Chris Fynn Share on Facebook Twitter Report stevensj Reply Twitter Economics Facebook Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa Share Report Share on Facebook 13 Sep 2018 23:30 14 Sep 2018 0:23 Report Reply So, it seems Trump is doomed by this Pluto-Saturn conjunction – unless, with his new Space Force he can nuke Pluto. Reply Topics The majority of people in the UK have been in a ‘recession’ for years on end. It just becomes the norm after a while. Most people will never be free of the effects of ‘recession’. 13 Sep 2018 23:09 Share | Pick Report Share on Facebook Share Twitter Share on Facebook Reply collapsed Share 19 20 Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Twitter Twitter Twitter Share on Facebook Gingerrrr Twitter Reply 7 8 Reply 3 4 Share on Facebook Report Share Share on Twitter | Pick Report | Pick MattBucks 14 Sep 2018 0:23 Report That’d make it too easy to kill myself. Reply Share Twitter | Pick Share on Twitter Show 5 more replies Twitter Report | Pick Share on Twitter 13 Sep 2018 23:06 Share on Facebook 13 Sep 2018 22:28 Twitter Report comment 13 Sep 2018 23:51 Share on Twitter 1 2 Facebook 13 Sep 2018 23:52 Shellfishbastard Share Facebook Share on Facebook Project Syndicate economists | Pick Share on Facebook | Pick 6 7 | Pick Share Stephen Da Costa Second, because the stimulus was poorly timed, the US economy is now overheating, and inflation is rising above target. The US Federal Reserve will thus continue to raise the federal funds rate from its current 2% to at least 3.5% by 2020, and that will likely push up short- and long-term interest rates as well as the US dollar.Meanwhile, inflation is also increasing in other key economies, and rising oil prices are contributing additional inflationary pressures. That means the other major central banks will follow the Fed toward monetary-policy normalisation, which will reduce global liquidity and put upward pressure on interest rates.Third, the Trump administration’s trade disputes with China, Europe, Mexico, Canada and others will almost certainly escalate, leading to slower growth and higher inflation.Fourth, other US policies will continue to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still. The administration is restricting inward/outward investment and technology transfers, which will disrupt supply chains. It is restricting the immigrants who are needed to maintain growth as the US population ages. It is discouraging investments in the green economy. And it has no infrastructure policy to address supply-side bottlenecks.Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down – more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against US protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US. A doctor can tell you you’re going to die early if you smoke 30 a day, drink 5 pints of Lager and eat only beef, but he can’t predict the day (or even likely, year or decade) you’ll succumb to your habits. It does not mean for a second that he is wrong about the causes. coolhandluke100 It could be a good thing. Disaster and change isn’t necessarily bad since the disaster and change might just mean disaster and change for the bad bastards which would be yin-yangishly good. Reply Share | Pick | Pick Share on Twitter RawBiffCanine | Pick Report 13 Sep 2018 22:59 Report 13 Sep 2018 23:28 13 Sep 2018 23:20 Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Runerunner Facebook Facebook Facebook Twitter Facebook 4 5 Minda Thompson Facebook Share on Twitter Facebook Buy Money Now! Minda Thompson Twitter Reply 13 Sep 2018 23:42 | Pick baldisgood Share Thejobhunter Share on Twitter kikocameron Report Facebook 10 11 Reply Share on Twitter Reply Twitter Support The Guardian Loading comments… Trouble loading? 13 Sep 2018 23:18 Twitter Ninth. The Trump administration has hyperfueled the US stock market with massive tax cuts ( the tax rate already being much too low for wealthy individuals). One of the tools to revive an ailing economy are tax cuts. When the next recession (depression???) hits, where are they going to cut taxes for the rich next? The US deficit is spiraling out of control thanks to Donald ( the King of Debt ) Trump, when we should be paying off the money we borrowed for the tax economic stimulus. Creditors to the US government have to be wondering how much debt the US economy can absorb at 103 percent GDP to debt ratio. Where’s the money going to come from? If I were you I’d hold off buying that third summer hone. | Pick 13 Sep 2018 22:33 Share Share on Facebook baldisgood 0 1 Share on Facebook | Pick Report Share via Email Share 13 Sep 2018 23:40 4 5 KungPowWow Reply Looking at statistics and history its about time for another crisis. As usual we will get even more austerity and service cuts and very few on top will get even more money. Thats they way it is…Get used to it guys. Reply Share on Twitter Reply | Pick kickuparumpus Thanks , just as I was getting my shit packed . 0 1 Facebook RawBiffCanine As we mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the US is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.There are 10 reasons for this. First, the fiscal-stimulus policies that are currently pushing the annual US growth rate above its 2% potential are unsustainable. By 2020, the stimulus will run out, and a modest fiscal drag will pull growth from 3% to slightly below 2%. Not sure about that. This Government has more ‘tools’ in it than any I can think of in recent memory. Reply Wait for the knuckle dragging right wing CiF regulars who will tell us all that this article is rubbish and the Tories know what they are doing etc etc. It’s seemingly clear there are some very scary warning signs. That’s enough to raise some red flags, but will anyone act? Personal debt levels are getting worryingly high again. Share on Twitter Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Facebook | Pick Share on Facebook First published on Thu 13 Sep 2018 09.40 EDT Show 2 more replies 8 9 EternallyUnimpressed Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.Seventh, US and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the US are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premia. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the US corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.Moreover, the leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world. The emerging-market correction in equities, commodities, and fixed-income holdings will continue as global storm clouds gather. And as forward-looking investors start anticipating a growth slowdown in 2020, markets will reprice risky assets by 2019.Eighth, once a correction occurs, the risk of illiquidity and fire sales/undershooting will become more severe. There are reduced market-making and warehousing activities by broker-dealers. Excessive high-frequency/algorithmic trading will raise the likelihood of “flash crashes.” And fixed-income instruments have become more concentrated in open-ended exchange-traded and dedicated credit funds. 2 Reply Twitter 13 Sep 2018 23:06 Twitter Facebook Report Share Facebook | Pick Share Watch out! About 25% of CiF regulars sincerely believe that. Reply Order by oldest 1 Share on Twitter Share | Pick Yup I’ve never seen a bigger bunch of spanners! Twitter Share But…but… Mrs May says it will be fine and we’re even doing a brexit to prove it! Project Syndicate economists 0 1 4 “Everything you read” in the Guardian “these days is pointing to this direction.” Fixed that for you. Share buy gold Share Share on Twitter 50 Share on Twitter Report Smuggo 2 3 16 Sep 2018 15:04 Report Reuse this content,View all comments > Report 13 Sep 2018 23:08 Facebook Facebook Share on Twitter Reply | Pick Share on Twitter Reply Share on Facebook coolhandluke100 In Roubini’s case, however, he’s repeatedly predicted the day and time of our demise and has built his reputation on the one time he was actually correct. According to Larry Summers apart from when coming out of a recession the odds of a recession in any one year are 20 per cent and apart from that we simply don’t know much else. Share on Twitter Reply 0 1 Joe Dert Twitter Continentalcyclist Facebook Facebook Smuggo 13 Sep 2018 23:46 Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Twitter | Pick | Pick Report 28 29 Share on Facebook Twitter Report Share on Twitter 3 Martin Brambley Twitter Indeed Reply Reply Read more True, but they have happened every 7 to 12 years in western countries for the past couple of hundred years. As it’s 10 years since the last one, predicting one in the next couple of years is not rocket science. 13 Sep 2018 23:50 Twitter | Pick Share on Facebook MtEden Reply 14 Sep 2018 9:06 1 2 14 15 17 18 Share Rosnona toadyblegh Share on Twitter Twitter Mustelidae Facebook 14 Sep 2018 0:16 RawBiffCanine 14 Sep 2018 8:07 1 2 Share on Facebook Share via Email coolhandluke100 Report simpleeconomics so your’e telling me there’s a chance… 13 Sep 2018 23:23 2 ADK1973 13 Sep 2018 23:28 Aguazul Since you’re here… Reply | Pick Report Share on Pinterest Share Share on Twitter Show 3 more replies 13 Sep 2018 23:30 Oooh. A suit. You must know what your doing then. Where do I sign up? You seem much more professional than that Nigerian prince I helped out last time. 13 Sep 2018 23:43 Facebook Ok then… all chips back in then. | Pick Facebook Reply | Pick 5 6 Share Share on Facebook Twitter 2 3 13 Sep 2018 23:47 baldisgood 1 2 Reply Share on Twitter I know, let’s talk it up, what a splendid idea. I recall many moons ago studying economics at A level. There were four of us in the class, no one else was interested as they could visit Spain or France if they studied a language which were the other options; we visited the House of Commons with our tutor in his rusting old Rover, travelling at a steady 40mph, eating homemade sandwich and drinking disgusting coffee from his flask. Anyhow, we were told that economics was a science; an inexact science. So, assuming that’s still the case, who the hell knows what’ll happen? Mind you it’s always fun to run around shouting ‘We’re all doooomed, doomed I tell you, doomed’ Share on Twitter This is so frightening to read, but definitely needed.Everything you read these days is pointing to this direction.Just get ready, I guess. Twitter Facebook Share on Facebook Share yep..totally agree Share Glen Pierce In the case of a risk-off, emerging markets and advanced-economy financial sectors with massive dollar-denominated liabilities will no longer have access to the Fed as a lender of last resort. With inflation rising and policy normalisation underway, the backstop that central banks provided during the post-crisis years can no longer be counted on.Ninth, Trump was already attacking the Fed when the growth rate was recently 4%. Just think about how he will behave in the 2020 election year, when growth likely will have fallen below 1% and job losses emerge. The temptation for Trump to “wag the dog” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will be high, especially if the Democrats retake the House of Representatives this year.Since Trump has already started a trade war with China and wouldn’t dare attack nuclear-armed North Korea, his last best target would be Iran. By provoking a military confrontation with that country, he would trigger a stagflationary geopolitical shock not unlike the oil-price spikes of 1973, 1979 and 1990. Needless to say, that would make the oncoming global recession even more severe.Finally, once the perfect storm outlined above occurs, the policy tools for addressing it will be sorely lacking. The space for fiscal stimulus is already limited by massive public debt. The possibility for more unconventional monetary policies will be limited by bloated balance sheets and the lack of headroom to cut policy rates. And financial-sector bailouts will be intolerable in countries with resurgent populist movements and near-insolvent governments.In the US specifically, lawmakers have constrained the ability of the Fed to provide liquidity to non-bank and foreign financial institutions with dollar-denominated liabilities. And in Europe, the rise of populist parties is making it harder to pursue EU-level reforms and create the institutions necessary to combat the next financial crisis and downturn.Unlike in 2008, when governments had the policy tools needed to prevent a free fall, the policymakers who must confront the next downturn will have their hands tied while overall debt levels are higher than during the previous crisis. When it comes, the next crisis and recession could be even more severe and prolonged than the last.• Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.• Brunello Rosa is co-founder and CEO at Rosa & Roubini Associates, and a research associate at the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics.© Project Syndicate Twitter Reply Twitter Email (optional) 5 6 Share on Facebook View more commentslast_img read more